Avant-Garde Monetary Theories Too Good To Be True.
The Australian government is planning to spend AUD 190 billion (USD 132 billion) to support the economy in response to COVID-19, according to the latest Parliamentary Budget Office estimate. The total impact of COVID-19 on the government’s net debt, including both revenue impacts (down, because of less activity) and spending impacts (up because of spending to support the economy) amounts to between 11% and 18% of gross domestic product, or AUD 500 billion to AUD 620 billion. The estimates are based on the three possible scenarios developed by the Reserve Bank: “downside”, “baseline” and “upside”. Each differ in their assumed timing of the relaxation of social distancing and other restrictions, and for how long uncertainty and diminished confidence weigh on households and business activity. With similar blow-outs around the world, a view gaining ascendancy, including amongst commentators such as Alan Kohler, is that government debt doesn’t matter – provided the government owes the money...